In addition to the HTML version of my CV, a PDF version is available here.


Ph.D. Public Policy (Political Economy), Princeton University
M.A. Public Affairs, Princeton University
B.A. Mathematics and Economics, University of California, San Diego
B.A. Political Science, University of California, San Diego


Lead Economist - Open-Source Value Project, Innovation and Value Initiative, Oakland CA
Research Economist, Precision Health Economics, Oakland CA
Associate Research Economist, Precision Health Economics, Oakland CA
Reseach Economist Intern, Precision Health Economics, Oakland CA
Research Associate, NERA Economic Consulting, Los Angeles, CA


Incerti, D. The Optimal Allocation of Campaign Funds in House Elections. Electoral Studies. (in press). (PDF, Supplement, GitHub).

Incerti D, Summers N, Ton TG, Boscoe A, Chandraker A, Stevens W. The Lifetime Health Burden of Delayed Graft Function in Kidney Transplant Recipients in the United States. Medical Decision Making Policy & Practice. 2018. Jun;3(1):2381468318781811.

Frasco MA, Shih T, Incerti D, Diaz Espinosa O, Vania DK, Thomas N. Incremental net monetary benefit of ocrelizumab relative to subcutaneous interferon β-1α. Journal of Medical Economics. 2017 Oct 3;20(10):1074-82.

Stevens W, Shih T, Incerti D, Ton TG, Lee H, Peneva D, Macones GA, Sibai BM, Jena AB. 2017. Short-term costs of preeclampsia to the United States health care system. American Journal of Obsetrics & Gynecology. 2017 Sep 1;217(3):237-48.

Shahabi A, Peneva D, Incerti D, McLaurin K, Stevens W. Assessing Variation in the Cost of Palivizumab for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Prevention in Preterm Infants. PharmacoEconomics-Open. 2017:1-9.

Jansen JP, Incerti D, Mutebi A, Peneva, D, MacEwan JP, Stolshek B, Kaur P, Gharaibeh M, Strand V. Cost-effectiveness of sequenced treatment of rheumatoid arthritis with targeted immune modulators. Journal of Medical Economics. 2017 Jul 3;20(7):703-14. (Supplement).

Manuscripts Under Review

Ton TG, Bennett M, Incerti D, Peneva D, Druzin M, Stevens W, Butwick A, Lee HC. Maternal and infant adverse outcomes associated with preeclampsia with and without severe features in the Untied States.

Incerti D, Browne J, Huber C, Baker CL, Makinson G, Goren A, Wilke R, Stevens W. An empirical tool for estimating and categorizing unmet need.

Stevens W, Incerti D, Peneva D, Shrestha A, Ramaswamy K, Smith G. An Empirical Analysis of the Role of Learning by Doing in Dynamic Cost-effectiveness.

Incerti D, Curtis JR, Shafrin J, Lakdawalla DN, Jansen JP. A flexible open-source decision model for value assessment of biologic treatment for rheumatoid arthritis.

Working Papers

Incerti D. An Assessment of Long-term Healthcare Expenditure Risk Using a Dynamic Bayesian Model. (PDF, Fake-data simulation).

Incerti D. Racial, Ethnic and Educational Disparities in Pharmaceutical Expenditures. (PDF).

Incerti D. Political Instability and Financial Markets. (PDF, GitHub).

Blog Post

Jansen JP, Incerti D, Linthicum M. An Open-Source Consensus-Based Approach To Value Assessment. Health Affairs Blog. 2017 Dec 1.

Oral Presentations

Developing flexible, iterative, and transparent decision models: a detailed look at a rheumatoid arthritis individual patient simulation. ISPOR Student Network Educational Webinar, 2018.

Open-Source Consensus-Based Models to Improve the Cost-Effectiveness of Rheumatology Care (selected oral abstract). ACR/ARHP Annual Meeting, San Diego, 2017.

Estimates of costs of preeclampsia to the United States health care system. March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center at Stanford University, Palo Alto, 2016 (with Thanh G.N. Ton).

Abstracts and Poster Presentations

Incerti D, Jansen JP. An Open-Source Toolkit for Developing Flexible Evidence-Based Decision and Simulation Models for Value Assessment in Oncology with R. ISPOR 23rd Annual International Meeting, Baltimore, 2018.

Incerti D, Jansen JP. Quantifying the Importance of Model Parameters and Structural Assumptions on the Value of Treatments for Rheumatoid Arthritis using Metamodeling. ISPOR 23rd Annual International Meeting, Baltimore, 2018.

Incerti D, Curtis JR, Lorenzi M, Jansen JP. Exploring Structural Uncertainty With An Open-Source Cost-Effectiveness Model For Rheumatoid Arthritis. ISPOR Annual European Congress, Glasgow, Scotland, 2017.

Incerti D, Peneva D, Shrestha A, Ramaswamy K, Smith G, Stevens W. An Empirical Analysis of the Role of Learning by Doing in Dynamic Cost-effectiveness. ISPOR Annual European Congress, Glasgow, Scotland, 2017.

Jansen JP, Jeffers A, Chang K, Incerti D. An Outcomes Regression Approach for Indirect Comparisons of Survival Outcomes when Standard Network Meta-Analysis is Not Feasible. ISPOR Annual International Meeting, Boston, 2017.

Wan J, Mongan J, Incerti D, Courtier J. A Shiny New World: Creating Your Own Radiology Decision Support Webapps Using R. Radiological Society of North America, Annual Meeting, Chicago, 2016.

Shiraito Y, Incerti, D, Lopez-Moctezuma G. A Reassessment of the Resource Curse: A Bayesian Dynamic Analysis of Panel Data. Midwest Political Science Association, Annual Meeting, Chicago, 2013.



Author of hesim, an R package for health economic simulation modeling and decision analysis that provides a general framework for integrating statistical analyses with economic evaluation. The package currently supports N-state partitioned survival models and state-transition models, as well as summarizing the output of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. It is designed for high performance simulation modeling including microsimulation and heavily utilizes Rcpp and data.table. (Website).

The IVI-RA model

Author of the IVI-RA model, an open-source individual patient simulation model for assessing the value of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) to treat rheumatoid arthritis. (GitHub).

R Shiny web applications

Honors and Awards

Centennial Fellowship, Princeton University
The Award for Excellence in Joint Mathematics-Economics granted to the most outstanding graduating Senior in Joint Mathematics-Economics, UCSD Department of Economics
DeWitt Higgs Award granted to the outstanding graduating Senior in the area of law and public policy, UCSD Department of Political Science
Michael Addison Award for the most outstanding Senior research paper, Warren College (graduating class of 950 students)

Skills and Interests


Most experienced: R, Stata, LaTeX, Excel

Some experience: C++, Python, MySQL, Stan, JAGS


UCSD Varsity Baseball Letterman, shortstop and centerfield, 2004 – 2006